Not surprisingly, netbooks/mini-notes was one of the hottest topics of the Phoenix Strategy 2009 conference, and there were a number of very interesting discussions on how the industry should address the future needs of this rapidly growing segment.

This meant going right down to fundamentals, including what exactly to call this new class of devices. Is netbook the right term, as has been advocated by Intel? Or should it be mini-notebook or mini-note, which are the terms that are being used by IDC, VIA, and certain OEMs?

I don’t think that any final agreement was reached, but for what it’s worth I believe that that we will continue to see both terms being widely used with slightly different meanings, with mini-note and mini-notebook standing for small form factor notebook (with screens smaller than 9”) and netbook becoming shorthand for low-cost notebook (screen-sizes in this category are already as large as 10.2” and will get even bigger next year).

There were also diverse views over the potential size of the market for mini-notes and netbooks, with IDC saying it will reach around 40 million units in 2012 and a representative from Freescale claiming that it will be significantly larger subject to the roll out of a new wave of highly affordable netbooks based around the ARM architecture. 

Again, for what it’s worth, I think that IDC is being a little conservative in its forecast and that the market for x86 powered mini-notes/netbooks will reach 50 million units in 2012; I also believe that there is considerable potential for ARM-based netbooks if they are sold at very aggressive price points.

One interesting feature of the global mini-note/netbook market is that the vast majority of the sales of these devices are in Europe and are being driven by low-cost 3G wireless broadband bundles being offered by telecom providers. We have seen examples of this trend with VIA processor based netbooks, such as the one being offered by CarPhone Warehouse in the UK, but I hadn’t realized that sales in Europe account for over 70% of worldwide volumes.

Unlike in Europe, US Telcos have been much less aggressive in offering wireless broadband bundles, though this may begin to change as Sprint rolls out its WiMax network. As for the rest of the world, education seems to be a key driver of sales, particularly in Latin America.

Overall, I got the impression that many people at the conference had been taken by surprise by the rapid growth in the mini-note/netbook market. But now the stable door has opened and the horse has bolted, so to speak, the key question on everyone’s mind was what needs to be done to improve the user experience in future generations of mini-notebooks and netbooks. I’ll talk about this subject tomorrow.